Frogs may find safer homes in Panama

A study led by the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, alongside the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, has pinpointed potential climate refuges in Panama where reintroduced amphibians may face lower risks from chytrid disease. The research focuses on chytridiomycosis, a fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, offering a more strategic approach to amphibian recovery efforts.

Since the 1970s, a deadly pathogen has spread through Central and South America, now covering the historical territories of many Atelopus species—the brightly colored harlequin toads. With multiple species teetering on the edge of extinction, conservationists are racing to reintroduce them, making these efforts a critical priority for survival.

Mapping Climate Refuges

Instead of assuming the fungus poses the same threat everywhere, the study team analyzed how temperature and humidity levels influence infection severity. By refining existing models that track where and when chytrid outbreaks peak, they created updated maps showing regions where the disease might be less destructive—even if the fungus remains present in the environment.

According to Brian Gratwicke, a conservation biologist at NZCBI and lead author, these maps provide scientists with a way to evaluate potential release locations. Past attempts to reintroduce captive-bred harlequin toads have failed due to persistent chytrid infections, so this tool could help prioritize safer sites for future efforts.

Findings and Implications

The research shows that nearly all harlequin toad species in Panama survive only in areas where over 80% of the seasons are unsuitable for severe chytrid infections. The sole exception is the variable harlequin toad (Atelopus varius), which was found in regions where the disease remains a risk, hinting at possible natural resistance in this species.

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Carrie Lewis, lead author of the paper and a doctoral candidate at George Mason University, said identifying climate refugia could also help scientists locate remnant wild populations that may no longer survive across most of their former range.

These results hold direct significance for the Panama Amphibian Rescue and Conservation Project, which cares for endangered frogs and explores ways to reintroduce them. Beyond pinpointing potential release zones, the models also identify areas that may become less hospitable to the disease as climate patterns shift over time.

As the researchers consider the next steps for reintroduction, they must balance disease risk with the frogs’ own habitat requirements, taking into account the potential impacts of climate change on these delicate ecosystems. By doing so, they may be able to create a safer path for these endangered species to return to the wild.

Teams on the ground have begun assessing candidate sites with the help of the new climate refugia and habitat maps. Upcoming release trials will determine whether these mapped areas actually improve survival odds for Panama’s most endangered amphibians, says Roberto Ibáñez, a co-author and STRI staff scientist.